The storminess across much of the continental United States during the latter half of 2023 can be attributed to a moderate El Nino weather pattern that began near the end of 2022.  However, the warming of waters across the tropical Eastern Pacific shows signs of abating, and will soon be replaced by ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) by this spring.   Thus, as meteorologists providing weather forecasts for electrical grid operations across the U.S. sat back in their easy chairs, assured that no large-scale arctic outbreaks would occur this winter, the El Nino bubble was already beginning to burst.

Alas, a surge of bitterly cold air (-30-40F) across much of the Yukon Territories is headed south into the continental U.S. east of The Rocky Mountains.  Because an El Nino-produced westerly jet stream persists across the southern United States from California to Florida. the depth of the cold airmass will determine just how much subfreezing air will surge south across the central and southern Plains States this weekend into early next week.

The Dallas Metroplex can expect sub-freezing temperatures to commence across their region Saturday night, remaining over the Metroplex through Tuesday night.  This frigid forecast is quite assured because of the depth of the cold air farther north across the Plains and Midwest, with much of that region (Nebraska-Illinois) to remain near or below zero during this same time period.

But, as this frigid airmass begins to thin in depth as it sinks further south across Texas and much of the South, the extent of the cold remains somewhat in question for Gulf Coast cities.  Houston can expect the surge of chilly air to reach the Bayou City as early as Sunday afternoon and evening, but with temperatures likely to remain above freezing until Monday evening and night, when another front pushes the dense cold air farther south into the region.

Both weather models used by meteorologists, the American model and European model, forecast a hard freeze for Houston, low temperatures generally in the low 20s, but the timing and duration of this cold snap remain in question, with Monday through Tuesday night the mostly likely time period for subfreezing temperatures. Thus, folks must prepare for this approaching arctic outbreak somewhat like they do for an approaching tropical weather system; make their winter preparations and hope the worst of the cold remains just to the north.

And of course, area meteorologists will be on constant vigil as the winter-weather event unfolds, with updates as necessary!